美聯儲大幅度加息會帶來什麼後果（美聯儲激進加息引發全球）

2023-04-14 05:05:12 1

美聯儲激進加息加劇了全球經濟衰退的風險。美國《紐約時報》10月8日報導，美聯儲的加息政策在全球掀起新一輪「加息潮」。出於遏制通脹、穩定本幣匯率等多重考慮，世界多國央行紛紛宣布加息。對此，世界銀行警告稱，全球範圍的「加息潮」將把全球經濟推向衰退，尤其是發展中國家將面臨一連串的金融危機風險和持久傷害。以下為報導摘編：

[Photo/Xinhua]

The Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates as it tries to tame the most rapid inflation in decades, an effort the central bank sees as necessary to restore price stability in the United States.為控制近幾十年來最嚴峻的通脹危機，美聯儲已經開始採取激進加息政策，將其視為穩定美國物價的必要措施。

But what the Fed does at home reverberates across the globe, and its actions are raising the risks of a global recession while causing economic and financial pain in many developing countries.但其所作所為在全球範圍內引發震蕩，加劇了全球衰退風險，同時給許多發展中國家經濟和金融造成衝擊。

Other central banks in advanced economies, from Australia to the eurozone, are also lifting rates rapidly to fight their inflation. And as the Fed’s higher interest rates attract money to the United States — pumping up the value of the dollar — emerging-market economies are being forced to raise their own borrowing costs to try to stabilize their currencies to the extent possible.從澳大利亞到歐元區，其他發達經濟體的央行也在迅速加息對抗通脹。美聯儲通過加息加速海外資本回流、提振美元價值，使得新興市場經濟體不得不提高借貸成本，以儘可能穩定其貨幣。

Many economists and several international bodies have warned that there’s a pronounced danger or overdoing it, including a United Nations agency that warned the damage could be particularly acute in poorer nations. Developing economies had already been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis because of soaring food and fuel prices, and now their American imports are growing steadily more expensive as the dollar marches higher.許多經濟學家和國際機構警告稱，當前的政策明顯存在風險，且過於激進，例如聯合國某機構警告稱，發展中國家受到的衝擊尤其嚴重。由於食品和能源價格飆升，發展中國家已經在應對生活成本危機，而現在隨著美元走高，從美國進口的商品價格持續上漲。

The Fed’s moves have spurred market volatility and worries about financial stability, as higher rates elevate the value of the US dollar, making it harder for emerging-market borrowers to pay back their dollar-denominated debt.美聯儲的加息政策引發了市場波動及對金融穩定的擔憂，因為加息提升了美元價值，使新興市場借貸人更難償還其以美元計價的債務。

It is a recipe for globe-spanning turmoil and even recession. Despite that, the Fed is poised to continue raising interest rates. 這可能導致全球經濟動蕩甚至衰退。儘管如此，美聯儲仍準備繼續加息。

The World Bank warned last month that simultaneous interest-rate increases around the world could trigger a global recession next year, causing financial crises in developing economies. It urged central banks in advanced economies to be mindful of the cross-border 「spillover effects.」世界銀行9月警告稱，世界各國同時加息可能會導致2023年全球經濟衰退、發展中國家金融危機爆發。該機構敦促發達經濟體央行警惕跨境「溢出效應」。

「To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,」 David Malpass, the World Bank president, said.世界銀行行長戴維·馬爾帕斯表示：「為了實現低通脹率、貨幣穩定和更快的增長，政策制定者可以將重點從減少消費轉向促進生產。」

This week, the UN Conference on Trade and Development said the moves by the Fed and other central banks risked causing a global downturn. 「Interest rate hikes by advanced economies are hitting the most vulnerable hardest,」 the agency’s Trade and Development Report said.本周召開的聯合國貿易和發展會議表示，美聯儲和其他央行的舉措可能導致全球經濟衰退。會議發布的《2022年貿易與發展報告》稱：「發達經濟體加息對最脆弱的國家衝擊最大。」

So far, major central banks have shown little appetite for stopping their inflation-busting campaigns. The Fed, which has made five rate increases this year, has signaled that it plans to raise borrowing costs even higher. 截至目前，各大央行幾乎沒有停止加息的打算。美聯儲今年已經加息五次，並表示計劃繼續加息。

Inflation is high across much of the world: 88 percent of low-income countries, 91 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 93 percent of upper-middle-income countries have seen inflation above 5 percent in recent months, according to the World Bank. Food costs in particular have driven millions further into extreme poverty, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition. As the dollar surge makes a range of imports pricier for emerging markets, that situation could worsen, even as the possibility of financial upheaval increases.當前世界大部分地區的通脹率居高不下：據世界銀行統計，近幾個月來，88%的低收入國家、91%的中低收入國家和93%的中高收入國家的通脹率超過5%。特別是糧食成本提高，使數百萬人進一步陷入赤貧，飢餓和營養不良問題惡化。美元飆升使新興市場的一系列進口產品價格更高，這種情況可能繼續惡化，甚至增加爆發金融危機的可能性。

「Low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress,」 Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, said during a news conference this week.世界貿易組織總幹事恩戈齊·奧孔喬-伊韋阿拉在本周的新聞發布會上表示：「低收入發展中國家尤其面臨嚴重的糧食危機和債務危機風險。」

In Africa, officials have been urging the I.M.F. and Group of 20 nations to provide more emergency assistance and debt relief amid inflation and rising interest rates.在非洲，官員們敦促國際貨幣基金組織和二十國集團在通貨膨脹和利率上升的情況下提供更多的緊急援助和債務減免。

To be sure, central bankers in big developed economies like the United States are aware that they are barreling over other economies with their policies. 可以肯定的是，美國等主要發達經濟體的央行已經意識到，他們的政策正在使其他經濟體陷入被動。

來源：《紐約時報》編輯：董靜

來源：中國日報網